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<h1>Equatorial Pacific SSTA forecasts</h1>
Steve Zebiak<p>
Forecast sea surface temperature fields are produced on a monthly basis
using the Zebiak and Cane (<a href="http://rainbow.ldgo.columbia.edu/cgi-bin/bibfind_html?Zebiak:Cane1987">1987</a>) coupled atmosphere-ocean
model.  The model is presently initialized using the FSU pseudo-stress
product for the tropical Pacific.  With this forcing the ocean model is spun
up to the beginning of the forecast period;  the atmopshere model is similarly
spun up using the simulated SSTA from the forced ocean run.  Thus initialized
the coupled model runs ahead in time with no data insertion, producing a 
forecast for the evolution of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system.  SSTA
fields from individual forecasts are first composited by lag-averaging the
results from six consecutive monthly initial conditions.  The composited
forecasts for lead times of 3,6,9, and 12 months are then post-processed
using a singular value decomposition analysis, to remove systematic spatial
pattern errors and to map the idealized model domain onto the real one.
The results are archived from January 1972 (verification time) to the most
recent month available.
<p>
The results are
<a      href="/SOURCES/.ENSOFORECAST/">here</a>.
<p><address>
steve@ldeo.columbia.edu
</address>
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