Mapping Human-Fox Relationships in an Area Endemic for Alveolar Echinococcosis: The Case of Geneva

Abstract:

In Geneva, the increasing colonization of urban spaces by the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) is intensifying cohabitation with humans. This proximity is accompanied by nuisances and a risk of zoonotic transmission, notably alveolar echinococcosis; its prevalence in foxes has not been evaluated since 2005 (45.7% in the Canton). Although classified as a neglected tropical disease by the WHO and endemic to Geneva, alveolar echinococcosis is characterized by outdated epidemiological data and lacks spatial mapping of contact risk to support targeted management. Rather than estimating infection prevalence, this study focuses on mapping the spatial hazard associated with fox presence and the resulting potential contact risk with concerned actors. Using 6,296 observations collected over 25 years, this study maps fox presence hazard across the Canton by combining ecological niche modeling (MaxEnt) and spatial density analysis (kernel density), highlighting the widespread occurrence of the species. The resulting hazard map was then combined, using ArcGIS, with exposed actors (human, child, and canine population densities, as well as agricultural plots) to map, for each of them, the interaction risk – that is, the risk of spatial contact. The results reveal a sharp contrast depending on the exposure: the risk is concentrated in the central urban area for the human, child, and canine populations, and is maximal in the rural periphery for agricultural plots. This differentiation calls for prevention strategies tailored to each target population. This work provides an updated perspective that could be used to target future prevention campaigns and lays the groundwork for future epidemiological field and ecological studies.