Modeling International Trade of Ammonia for Direct Use and as a Hydrogen Carrier in Korea

Achieving carbon neutrality requires large-scale deployment of low-carbon energy carriers and fuels. In Korea, clean ammonia (NH3) is gaining increasing attention due to its potential role in international energy trade and hard-to-abate sectors. Traditionally used as a feedstock for fertilizers and chemicals, ammonia is now emerging as both an efficient hydrogen carrier and a direct carbon-free fuel. Clean ammonia enables long-distance transportation and storage due to its high volumetric energy density and existing infrastructure, while direct utilization pathways may reduce energy losses and additional costs associated with hydrogen cracking. Growing interest in ammonia-fueled shipping amid tightening International Maritime Organization (IMO) regulations and in ammonia combustion technologies in the power sector further underscores its importance in future decarbonization strategies.

This study investigates how ammonia supply chains and utilization pathways may evolve under a net-zero transition in Korea using a modified GCAM-KAIST framework. The research extends the current GCAM ammonia representation by incorporating pathways for clean ammonia production, international trade, transportation, storage, cracking, and direct utilization. Clean ammonia production is represented through a modified Haber-Bosch process integrated with renewable electricity and water electrolysis systems. The model further captures the full ammonia supply chain, from international shipping as liquid ammonia (LNH3) to downstream hydrogen reconversion or direct end-use applications.

Preliminary results suggest that LNH3 may remain cost-competitive with liquefied hydrogen (LH2) despite additional cracking processes, due to potential advantages in long-distance transportation, storage, and existing ammonia infrastructure. Direct ammonia utilization is also expected to improve economic performance by avoiding energy losses associated with reconversion. The study provides insights into future ammonia trade strategies, infrastructure planning, and clean energy transitions for Korea and other energy-importing countries.