Bridging ex-post and ex-ante EU social indicator trends: An explorative modelling analysis for SDG4 and SDG5 [Dataset]

This repository contains the replication files for the manuscript : "Bridging ex-post and ex-ante EU social indicator trends: An explorative modelling analysis for SDG4 and SDG5". 

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development represents a roadmap for navigating a sustainable path for global human development. While ex-ante modeling is common for economic and environmental domains, the social domain remains relatively neglected. This research fills that gap by combining ex-post econometrics (double-lasso) with ex-ante simulation modeling. This repository contains the data and code required to replicate the findings of the study exploring the drivers of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 4 and 5.  Key findings highlight that economic growth, trade openness, and education expenditure are vital for SDG 4 (Education), while income distribution, urban agglomeration, and rural development are critical for narrowing the SDG 5 (Gender Wage Gap). Our simulations reveal that a global economic slowdown would disproportionately reverse progress in both indicators across all EU member states, emphasizing the need for resilient social and labor-market policies.

The study only uses secondary data sources. We combine different already available data sources from Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (see Lutz et al., 2018, KC et al. 2024), the World Development Indicators database (World Bank, 2025) and Eurostat SDGs database. Based on the available sources, we determine the sample and timeframe for each indicator, particularly  between 1995 to 2020 for SDG4 and from 2002 to 2020 for SDG5.  For the ex-ante analysis, the computable general equilibrium model used (MAGNET) is not open source, we are unable to share this. The key database upon which it is based is the Global Trade Analysis Database (GTAP), which is available at cost from their website. On the other hand, the projections of the social indicators data implemented into the CGE model to calibrate our baseline have also been included in the repository.

Funding acknowledgement
BrightSpace is funded by the European Union. Grant Agreement No. 101060075. Views and opinions expressed are those of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Commission. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.
UK Research and Innovation Project Code: 10047415 https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=10047415

Citation
Garcés I., Philippidis G., Sanjuán A.I., Álvarez R. (2026): "Bridging ex-post and ex-ante EU social indicator trends: An explorative modelling analysis for SDG4 and SDG5". Dataset.

Legal notice
This document was produced under the terms and conditions of Grant Agreement No. 101060075 for the European Commission. It does not necessary reflect the view of the European Union and in no way anticipates the Commission’s future policy in this area. The European Commission is not liable for any consequence stemming from the reuse of this publication.
© BrightSpace, 2026
The reuse of this document is authorised under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC-BY 4.0) licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This means that reuse is allowed provided appropriate credit is given and any changes are indicated. For any use or reproduction of elements that are not owned by the BrightSpace consortium, permission may need to be sought directly from the respective right holders.

Project information
BrightSpace Horizon Europe project Grant Agreement No. 101060075 https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/101060075 CALL: Innovative governance, environmental observations and digital solutions in support of the Green Deal WORK PROGRAMME Topic ID: HORIZON-CL6-2021-GOVERNANCE-01-12 EU agriculture within a safe and just operating space and planetary boundaries
BrightSpace Project coordination: Wageningen Economic Research, The Hague, NL Contact: brightspace.wser@wur.nl | Website: www.brightspace-project.eu
Project duration: 1 November 2022 – 31 October 2027